Drought events pose as a threat to Washington State’s agricultural community. To increase producer’s resilience in the face of future droughts, it is important that we identify impacts, vulnerabilities and resiliency strategies by learning from past drought events.
2015 Drought Impacts to Agriculture
In 2015, the Washington State Department of Ecology provided funds to WSDA to conduct an assessment of the economic impacts of drought to the agricultural sector. This was the first ever attempt to quantify the impact of a climatological event on Washington’s agriculture.
A variety of data sources were utilized to estimate statewide impacts. A detailed analysis was done on select regions anticipated to have significant impacts due to water rights curtailments.
This report estimated total $633-773 million gross revenue losses. The impacts of the 2015 drought were not limited to certain crops or regions and many of these impacts were not quantifiable in the scope of this study. Through this work, WSDA gained a better understanding of how variable drought impacts can be throughout the state.
Final Report: 2015 Drought and Agriculture
A variety of data sources were utilized to estimate statewide impacts. A detailed analysis was done on select regions anticipated to have significant impacts due to water rights curtailments.
This report estimated total $633-773 million gross revenue losses. The impacts of the 2015 drought were not limited to certain crops or regions and many of these impacts were not quantifiable in the scope of this study. Through this work, WSDA gained a better understanding of how variable drought impacts can be throughout the state.
Final Report: 2015 Drought and Agriculture
Economic Model of Drought Impacts
The Washington Academy of Sciences reviewed WSDA’s report “2015 Drought and Agriculture” and recommended future estimates be based on an economic model. Washington State Department of Ecology’s Office of the Columbia River provided funds to WSDA to contract out the development of a drought impacts economic model. The model, developed by researchers at University of California, Merced, provides a tool for WSDA to estimate impacts to irrigated agriculture from drought events. The tool is meant to be used for macro level economic analysis at the watershed and statewide scales.
Modeling Framework
Model users can adjust applied irrigation water, crop land available, crop prices, and crop yields to estimate the effects on gross revenues and spillover effects (employment, total value added) on the agricultural economy.Future Model Uses
WSDA is evaluating future uses of this model. This tool has the potential to estimate the economic impact of drought, in specific regions and crop groups. Drought scenarios can be modeled to shed light on potential economic losses and existing vulnerabilities. These analyses will provide valuable background data about what could be expected in future drought events and inform future planning.
For more information visit https://openag.ucmerced.edu and click on “Learn More”